If there is a war with China, it will most likely be over its efforts to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. In the meantime China will continue to invade Australia from an economic perspective and this will have a triad attached: to enable China to exert influence on regional strategic partnerships; to establish China and A-P multilateral deals that actively encourage the use of the Renminbi (sometimes called the Yuan), as a source of collateral; and to pro-actively downgrade Australia-US military commitments and partnerships. Long March Out of China. The Australian, Melbourne: Murdoch Media, 19 August, 2014, 9. Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. The short-tempered outburst by Senator Palmer on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Q&A program, to be sure was just that, an outburst. Australia has no political leader capable of seeing the futility of following the US line in Asia. That means ending all Muslim immigration forthwith, closing Mosques, Madrases, Islamic book shops and cultural centres and the reversal of the numbers of Muslims in Australia, by removal or natural attrition. The Battle of Guadalcanal (ie, Solomon Islands) between August 1942 and February 1942 was the first major land offensive undertaken by the Allied forces, including Australia and the US, against Japan, resulting in over 26,000 deaths and the loss of 57 warships and almost 1,300 aircraft. I think we are in for a few surprises as the old economic and political models falter and global warming becomes a real issue. Nevertheless, Britain still gained what it needed and the British people benefited the middle-class continued. [1] Jacqui Lambie refuses to apologise for warning of Chinese invasion. AAP/The Australian. But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. What is happening in China, and has been exponentially expanding in the past decade, is the PRC has set about accomplishing exactly what the West has done for centuries: developing a strong middle-class. In that effort, China "really got a bloody nose, it was not a very successful operation," director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Bonnie Glaser said. As happened with Britain and the US the middle-classes of China will demand more from their government in particular more fiscal and military status in the world and Australia will be at the forefront of these ructions that both soft power and hard power bring. What Australia can do to better improve its immediate security and harmony is withdraw from the UN Refugee Accords, and accept only those who meet strict selection, suitability and civility criteria. Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. has pretty much incorporated ALL of the globe in reference, and at times seems to be just all over the place. [7] See Francis Fukuyama. China could invade Taiwan later this year, top Navy officer warns By Caitlin Doornbos October 21, 2022 12:14pm Updated 0 of 58 secondsVolume 0% 00:00 00:58 China could invade Taiwan as. In 1913 Western Europe accounted for 14.6 percent (%) of the worlds population. There ya go. Sheesh if only they had known the brakes were off and the war machine would just keep rolling along. *chuckle*. Just $5 a month. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". There is much China could gain from such an overt act as part of a grand strategy of preponderance; to force Australia to rethink its US ties; to gain greater access to Australias resources upon which it depends; as a signal to regional enemies that it is the force to be reckoned with; and to show regional allies it is the most powerful and dynamic actor. Writing in the national business daily, the Australian Financial Review, international relations specialist James Curran asks a different question.What lessons should Australia draw from Vladimir Putin's invasion for managing a comparable crisis in Taiwan? According to Prof Blaxland, the old truths that have kept Australia safe from invasion - except for the colonial project beginning in 1788 - are still in play. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. Darwin is narrow-minded, provincial, over-priced, and un-competitive! The schemata upon which the West has developed its societal modality is one of a thriving and burgeoning middle-class, and this has been encouraged in other societies by the West in order for the West to meet its own needs, and in doing this the West has had other societies contribute to its progress. Jacqui Lambie!! Note: Dr Alexey Muraviev isAssociate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University. China is Australia's largest trading partner, making up 30 per . In March, Adm. Philip Davidson, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command at. After the next decade for Australia all will not be so secure. For, In the world of Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, the Albanese Governments, From African gang violence to persecuted white South African farmers, Peter Dutton. China snubs US proposal at ASEAN. The Age. Drop file here. The suggestions that Australia could not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken. Blunt threats made in Chinese mainstream media, and more recent remarks by an Australian senator- that the ADF is unlikely to last even a few days in a high-end conflict with China - warrant yet another examination of Australias strategic circumstances and the likelihood of an attack on mainland Australia. Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. Chinas dominance is that of being a global geo-political and geo-strategic actor and thus, current preponderance in the A-P is only the first step, and an even stronger global military presence will follow. I thought, Censorship is never innocent, made worse for its strained good intentions. Thankyou for your comments, very robust and informative for me. A war . I agree wholeheartedly Trevor, though I cant see things changing unless Australia disengages from the US and makes its own waywe will be drawn into a conflict at the behest of the US, if only to test Chinas repose and manoeuvrings. It would be the nightmare from hell to contain. Washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established its Australia Chair this week. Hence, China will, like the Spanish, French, British and Americans before it, have to use extramural preponderance to get what it needs for its populace. A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. As the late ex-PM, Mr Fraser warned us, dont count on America in saving Australia, from an potential attack from China, America can no longer even save itself ! Similarly, China can regularise and intensify cyber-attacks on Australian key assets to cause more disruption and inflict more damage. For peace to come about either locally or globally, a major reappraisal of Language and all the edifices of modern life are called into question. It is safe to assume that in the event of a large-scale invasion of mainland Australia, the ADFs response capacity would be overstretched beyond any reasonable expectation of waging effective defensive operations. Australia also has rare earths and God knows what PNG has still yet? "It may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000 ton' maritime . Nevertheless, being a minister of parliament does demand a level of tact and discretion that was obviously lacking on the night in question and there has been some repercussions, but other than hurt feelings not much more seems to have eventuated an apology was forthcoming and all appears smooth again. The issue-at-hand remains that China would not invade Australia in the next decade because pax-Sino has not been on the ascent long enough; and has not been able to establish the required networks for a limited invasion of Australia to succeed. Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. Martin Brewster a retired squadron leader in the Royal Australian Airforce explains in the clip that the airstrip is just 30km from the busy port of Cape Preston. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. Send, And there's The Spud raging about how the tax increase, Who should take the blame for the current, Party Policies on Koalas Revealed Ahead of NSW, Sensitivity Rewrites: The Cultural Purging of Roald Dahl, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932, http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html, http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world, MP Tudge Leaves In Order To Spend Less Time With. The question of what type of war the ADF should be prepared to fight represents one of the ongoing points of debate in Canberra and beyond. Doing that will improve the security outlook here by a great measure. Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. Recently the Obama administration has gone to great lengths to reassure Australia it is committed to keeping a geo-strategic and political presence in the region with a recent visit by Secretary of State Kerry and a reiteration of wanting to rebalance Asia. This means that we may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. Australians must never forget how the 14 conditions delivered to Australia by China would change this nation forever. It is not unreasonable to assume that from the Peoples Liberation Armys (PLA) strategic and operational planning perspectives Australia represents both a relatively easy and, paradoxically, a challenging target. Finally, the PLA seriously lacks operational combat experience, including in managing expeditionary operations. New York: Free Press, 1992. [10] Angus Madisson. The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. particularly June Bullivant. Historical Statistics. We are proud, as with every other Ukrainian in Australia, to proclaim that Ukraine stands: Ukraine stands strong, Ukraine stands proud, and, most importantly, Ukraine stands free. Once again the making of such a statement can be given credence by observing that America is fiscally bankrupt to China, and owes the PRC trillions of dollars and the US would simply not risk China calling in its debt/s as this would devastate the US domestic economy. Among them are the following (but not necessarily in this exact order): The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains. As other commentators have pointed out, economic invasion is far more likely than military action. And correspondingly, where to place the US? It is unlikely that the PLA will risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a long-range offensive asset against Australia. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. What am I missing? thank goodness Irvine is retiring before he starts some form of Hitler Youth thing to spy on their neighbours. The End of History and the Last Man. Mbius EckoSeptember 9, 2014 at 8:17 pm Theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. From what I have heard from non-Anglo News Sources, this may already be the case. I kind of see it from the opposite angle. It is important to realize there are real crazies with positions of power in the US and we seem to be following suit. CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045. But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. Or so it seems. War and the arming for war is the defining rationale behind the (dominant) Western Economies. One upshot of her comment/s is that the military rise of China is now out in the public sphere and the massive impact this will have on Australia is finally beyond the hallways of the Department of Defence in Canberra. Reported suspensions would cut Australian exports by up to $6 billion. At any rate Australia is in trouble. Australia cut. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. From the big bad Toniorists. Kaye Lee, Nail hit firmly on the head. This is the real war. After all its our back yard. In the process of the IRs momentum the British government had to meet ever greater demands from its populace. I just wonder why the author thinks that Americas debt would be a protective factor in preventing a conflict with China. On the other side of the ledger we have people who deride any concerns as alarmist, the fish bowl syndrome. The present Lambie redneck doctrine of Invasion by China or Indonesia harks back to Menzies and his yellow peril election Arrows and like the Menzies arrows Lambies redneck doctrine is just a ploy to stay elected. Time and again it has been demonstrated that invasion does not work. Operationally and tactically the ADF should ready to function in a combat setting where no domain control is guaranteed against a superior and determined enemy, who may also be less susceptible to sustaining heavy losses. And moreover, for the US Australia would not be the only game in town. Reflecting on this statement, a significant part of the reason the US lost the Vietnam War is that it was not the only game in town[13] as it was beset with domestic civil strife, had ongoing issues with the Soviet Union-Cuba alliance, and had European Cold War commitments as well as the space race. An Australia-China conflict will also adhere to the not the only game in town principle for the US and for Australians to believe that the US will see a conflict in the A-P region as important enough to warrant an immediate response is simply wrong. Your contribution to help with the running costs of this site will be gratefully accepted. Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. We are at no immediate risk of invasion nobody in the region has anything like the force projection capability required to put tens of thousands of set of boots anywhere of strategic value on our land mass, let alone sustain the supply chain long enough to sustain even a brief campaign. Domestic harmony is also part of the PRCs aim. This has been done with unconditional fiscal contributions (loans). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris: OECD, 2003, 258. As for Jacqui Lambie how could anyone believe her statements or take them too seriously shes a very loose cannon, and I wouldnt be surprised if the PUP somehow bids her goodbye in the not too distant future. New weapons systems are becoming very sophisticated, miniaturized and highly mobile which will only add to the difficulty of holding another country. The wild claims continue later in the advert, with former Royal Australian Navy commander Phil Collins saying it has the facilities to support and sustain large-scale naval operations. A superior military air force could, in effect, control all of Western Australias resources in the Pilbara and the North West Shelf gas reserves.. It responded with an unprecedented wave of . We pay our respect to Elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. Have a friend who was Ambassador to China and it would not take much to regain their respect. Peace is said to be Wars opposite and everwhile the arming for war denies peace any opportunity of reality except in the mind of man. [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. Strategic defence expert Ron Huisken labelled it sensational nonsense and rather tacky scaremongering. The last time the PLA was in active combat was in 1979, when China fought a brief border war with Vietnam. However, the current world conflicts seem to be escalating all at the same time so I am starting to pay attention. Sign up to the Daily Star's newsletter. War is inevitable. If a more solid outcome and strategic footprint air- and sea-bases in Indonesia is enabled by the PRC beyond the current military outposts of Pakistan and Myanmar the danger/s for Australia exponentially increase and an invasion would be more likely. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it; it may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000-tonne "maritime safety" vessels, and . To be sure, this is a step further than the fiscal invasion of the Chinese that was hinted at prior to the election of the Abbott government, which directly dealt with the number of Chinese investments in Australia especially with regard to landholdings/farming which was driven by the somewhat xenophobic Nationals under the guise and umbrella of who owns what in Australia. Free market squabbling aside, and the prejudices inherent within this argument about the marketplace, the issue that needs to be examined is whether there is a modicum of truth in what Lambie has stated. The CIA believes President Xi Jinping would be unsettled by Vladimir Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine, casting doubt about his own military's ability to take Taiwan by force in the near . Your email address will not be published. AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. This guides the question of the optimal future force size, and the subsequent commitment to defence spending, as highlighted by Senator Jim Molan. This is a well written, well constructed article, but I find the premise on which it is based implausible. Australia must be willing to invade the Solomon Islands and topple its government if that's what is necessary to stop a proposed security pact between China and the Pacific nation going ahead . The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war. Subscribe to ADM Premium. Although detailed information about national stockpiles of munitions, critical spares, and fuel is not wholly open-source it is logical to expect that the ADF holds sufficient resources to engage in high tempo large scale operations for a certain period of time. Be a protective factor in preventing a conflict with China Melbourne: Murdoch Media, 19,... Kind of see it from the opposite angle few surprises as the old economic and political falter... Other commentators have pointed out, economic invasion is far more likely than military action incorporated all the. 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